Dollar drops, now where from here?

Some readers have been asking for an update to my recent post about the dollar. The dollar traded sideways a few more days, staying in the zone of consolidation described earlier. Today, as there are a few more hours left of trading, it has already dropped into support mentioned earlier at the 38% fib-fan line.

I've marked a support area in red on the chart below and you can see how it intersects a 38% fib-fan line there as well, near it's current price of  80.060. Should this breakdown a likely support area would be the 50% fib-fan line near 79.000. However, if it does get some support followed by upward momentum, it's possible we could see a rise to 81.500. Further weakness on the dollar could push the commodities like copper (JJC) up even higher.



May you live in interesting times,

Klatuu

Read more...

Is the dollar bullish?

The run up in the dollar (@DX, $DXY or the DXH10 contract) since December '09 has been a nice change since the long fall from Nov '08. Yet, can it continue? Taking a gander at a longer term chart below shows the run up from July '08 to Nov '09 and then the subsequent fall down to the 80 level in Dec '08, a climb back up to almost the previous high at 91 and then the steep fall to it's more recent low in Dec '09 of 74.27.

Looking at this with Longer term Fibonacci levels we see a 38% retracement line at 80.48 and a 50% retracement at 82.57.  There's a bit of congestion (read resistance) acquired during the fall that I've outlined in the blue box between 80.27 and 81.85. We may need to spend some time in this congestion zone before we break out of this box, yet there's still support down near that round number 80.00. People love round numbers, don't they? Ever asked some to pick a random number between 1 and 100? How many times they'll pick those round numbers like 80 rather than the more plentiful decimals numbers like 3.1415 or 61.8 or 76.4? I think it rolls off their tongue better than those messy decimals. You get the idea. But, I digress.

 Enhancing this view is the shorter term Fib-fan lines from Dec '09. The dollar's been hugging the 23% fan line a lot lately. While we could see a pullback toward the 38% fan line before we get out of this box, and maybe a small pull back too, it does look like a continuation in the zone.  Below is a closer look at more recent activity.

Good trading to you,

Klatuu

Read more...